Weekly Recap and Outlook

Recap on Last Week

Hegel remarks somewhere that all great world-historic facts and personages appear, so to speak, twice. He forgot to add: the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce.”  – Karl Marx

If the second turn of the knife should be viewed as a joke, I wonder what Marx’s thoughts on the third attempt would be?  If I’m not mistaken, it was Albert Einstein who would call that insanity.

As probably expected, the news was Greece-centric, pretty much all week.  Aside from some major announcements in the western hemisphere, US and Canada specifically, most all eyes were on the Greek vote earlier this week as Papa EU calmly said, “stop being bad and we’ll give you your toys back.”  Greek referendum passed with a YES vote, as expected, and we’ve kicked the can down the road, one more time.

Here in the Western Hemisphere, following an interesting short-term shut down of the NYSE last Wednesday for an hour or so (insert paranoid conspiracy theory HERE), we followed this week with primarily negative news.  Retail sales here in the States not only underperformed expectations, but posted negative numbers.  Change in finished sales price, PPI was up, this perhaps indicating an increase in cost may be causing the decrease in spending reflected on the retail sales numbers.  Preliminary Consumer Sentiment was also lower than expected.  The only positive was a marginal decrease in the unemployment rate (which I’m fairly certain will be revised down next month), and of course despite an increase in PPI and decrease in retail sales, core CPI remained constant… gives a warm, fuzzy feeling about the criteria now used to determine CPI.  For more info on that farce, see John Williams website, http://www.shadowstats.com.

Our neighbors to the north showed decreasing manufacturing sales and CPI remained constant.  A less important figure, but one I find interesting is the Foreign Security Investment reported on Thursday, the total value of all domestic stocks, bonds and money-market assets purchased by foreign investors.  Expected 8.21 Billion, however actual was a -5.45 Billion.  Foreign investors were net sellers in the Canadian markets.

Finally, big on the list these last few weeks was China.  Major market drops

Dow Industrials – 3mo Average Daily Rolling Volume 95,722,220.  A week ago’s 3mo Average 98,175,456.  Down about 2.5%.  Trend up with volume decreasing – assume possible reversal/correction – Data per CNN Money

Dow Transports – 3mo Average Daily Rolling Volume 15,590,553.  A week ago’s 3mo Average 15,675,265.  Marginally up 0.5%.  Trend down with volume increasing – assume continuation down – Data per CNN Money

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